{
  "$schema": "https://opencausal.org/causaljson/0.2/causaljson.schema.json",
  "graph": {
    "type": "pdag",
    "created": "2026-10-15T23:31:41.475Z",
    "layout": {
      "coordinate_system": "screen",
      "bounding_box": {
        "min_x": 109,
        "min_y": 54,
        "max_x": 1071,
        "max_y": 497
      }
    },
    "research_question": "According to the BBC rap battle Origins, what caused World War One to break out in 1914?"
  },
  "nodes": [
    {
      "id": "node_t0_pan_slav_nationalism",
      "label": "Pan-Slav nationalism",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "Strength of the movement to unite South Slavic peoples in one state free of Austro-Hungarian rule (Princip's 'United Slav Nation').",
      "position": {
        "x": 165,
        "y": 441
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_alliances",
      "label": "Alliances",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "The two rival blocs: Germany with Austria-Hungary, and the Triple Entente (Russia, France, Britain), plus Russia's protection of Serbia and Britain's guarantee to Belgium.",
      "position": {
        "x": 165,
        "y": 110
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_german_imperial_ambition",
      "label": "German imperial ambition",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "Kaiser Wilhelm II's aim of territorial expansion and a lasting German empire, which George V blames for the crisis.",
      "unmeasured": true,
      "position": {
        "x": 165,
        "y": 276
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_naval_race_with_britain",
      "label": "Naval race with Britain",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "Competition between the British and German navies (dreadnought building) before 1914.",
      "position": {
        "x": 307,
        "y": 110
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_franz_ferdinand_assassinated",
      "label": "Franz Ferdinand assassinated",
      "role": "exposure",
      "description": "Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to Austria-Hungary, is shot by Gavrilo Princip in Sarajevo (June 1914).",
      "position": {
        "x": 307,
        "y": 441
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_austria_hungary_attacks_serbia",
      "label": "Austria-Hungary attacks Serbia",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "Austria-Hungary mobilises and goes to war against Serbia in retaliation for the assassination.",
      "position": {
        "x": 448,
        "y": 276
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_russia_comes_to_serbia_s_aid",
      "label": "Russia comes to Serbia's aid",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "Russia mobilises against Austria-Hungary to defend Serbia.",
      "position": {
        "x": 590,
        "y": 276
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_germany_marches_through_belgium",
      "label": "Germany marches through Belgium",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "Germany goes to war with Russia and France and sends its army through neutral Belgium to reach France.",
      "position": {
        "x": 732,
        "y": 276
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_the_kaiser_can_t_back_down",
      "label": "The Kaiser can't back down",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "Wilhelm II refuses any compromise because backing down would make him look foolish.",
      "unmeasured": true,
      "position": {
        "x": 307,
        "y": 276
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_britain_keeps_its_word_to_belgium",
      "label": "Britain keeps its word to Belgium",
      "role": "covariate",
      "description": "Britain declares war on Germany to honour its guarantee of Belgian neutrality.",
      "position": {
        "x": 873,
        "y": 276
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "node_t0_world_war_one",
      "label": "World War One",
      "role": "outcome",
      "description": "Outbreak of a general European war in August 1914.",
      "position": {
        "x": 1015,
        "y": 276
      }
    }
  ],
  "edges": [
    {
      "source": "node_t0_pan_slav_nationalism",
      "target": "node_t0_franz_ferdinand_assassinated",
      "type": "undirected"
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_pan_slav_nationalism",
      "target": "node_t0_russia_comes_to_serbia_s_aid",
      "type": "undirected",
      "curvature": 0.65
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_alliances",
      "target": "node_t0_russia_comes_to_serbia_s_aid",
      "type": "undirected",
      "curvature": 0.5
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_alliances",
      "target": "node_t0_germany_marches_through_belgium",
      "type": "undirected",
      "curvature": 0.5
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_alliances",
      "target": "node_t0_britain_keeps_its_word_to_belgium",
      "type": "undirected",
      "curvature": 0.35
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_german_imperial_ambition",
      "target": "node_t0_naval_race_with_britain",
      "type": "undirected"
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_german_imperial_ambition",
      "target": "node_t0_the_kaiser_can_t_back_down",
      "type": "undirected"
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_naval_race_with_britain",
      "target": "node_t0_britain_keeps_its_word_to_belgium",
      "type": "undirected"
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_franz_ferdinand_assassinated",
      "target": "node_t0_austria_hungary_attacks_serbia",
      "type": "undirected"
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_austria_hungary_attacks_serbia",
      "target": "node_t0_russia_comes_to_serbia_s_aid",
      "type": "undirected"
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_russia_comes_to_serbia_s_aid",
      "target": "node_t0_germany_marches_through_belgium",
      "type": "undirected"
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_germany_marches_through_belgium",
      "target": "node_t0_britain_keeps_its_word_to_belgium",
      "type": "undirected"
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_the_kaiser_can_t_back_down",
      "target": "node_t0_world_war_one",
      "type": "undirected",
      "curvature": 0.25
    },
    {
      "source": "node_t0_britain_keeps_its_word_to_belgium",
      "target": "node_t0_world_war_one",
      "type": "undirected"
    }
  ]
}